Last week was super painful for the markets, but there was a shining light. Goog managed to hold some of its gains from the previous week and not retest its lows. This seems to be a good sign for the stock so i figured I would do a bit of charting. here is a long term view of the stock with the Fibonacci retracement lines drawn in. Notice how the stock tells us that these points are important by gaping over the lines or bouncing off of them.

Finally here is the same graph just with an optimized simple moving average cross over. The computer says that the best entry point, assuming no costs is when the 4 day moving average cross above the 47 day, and the best time to sell long is when the 14 day crosses below the 59 day. Over the period this netted 101.5% return on trades compared to 53% change in price that buy and hold would have achieved.

So google bounced and check this out. On 11/12 i said I was looking at 620 to be the bottom based on the 50% retracement level. On the 19th goog did a little double bottom at 620 and is now trading at $693.00. check out the picture

This time using fibonacci projection lines we can look for the next buying opportunity. As of today google has already broken above the first projection line at $685. the 38.3% projection is at $720. If you are looking to buy, wait till the stock breaks just over 720 on its way up to the previous high of $750. If we get bad news or no rate cut the stock could be stalled at 720, thats why you wait for the confirmation.

Well today google gaped below 650 and kept going. Next stop is the 50% retracement line. If you look at the intraday chart 650 was a critical value, once the stock jumped below it around mid day it never recovered. The 50% retracement line is around 620 and this point showed some resistance on the way up also. We are coming up on key inflation data, while goog isn’t the most responsive to this information it is keeping investors in check so big moves will probably wait. I’m going to keep any eye on google settling at 620, if it moves past this point we’re probably looking at a stock in the high 500s. if there isn’t catastrophe in the numbers on the 14th then I’m going to look for goog to move back up.

Here is todays intraday google chart

Google’s stock has been vertical since mid august moving from a $500 stock to $740. This Thursday and Friday saw a sharp change as google sold off $70 to close the week at $663.97. This seems like retracement before a move up, call it profit taking or credit fears the next question is when to go long again. First, standard technical analysis will look for historic points of resistance or gaps to identify the bottom of a retracement. In this case there is almost no way to confirm these critical points because the stock price has blown past most of them. So we throw some Fibonacci retracement lines. Thursday night the stock gaped below the first critical level of 23.6% retracement but closed the week a little more then half way in between there and the 38.2% level. The 38.2% will be a good target for googles stock to rest. If you look to the graph as it moves up there is a small gap just above 650, which is close to our critical fibonacci number. Also my current neuroshell model gave a buy signal after the stock gaped down Thursday night (which i guess means the model isn’t very good, but its rough and not designed to pick day to day changes but trend changes) this is all making me feel pretty good about 650 being the turning place. Still to help give another confirmation I’ve included a graph from Sep. 06 through Jan. 07 where the Fibonacci retracement lines were drawn in to see their relevance. Notice they form strong critical points for valleys and peaks for the next 6 months.Anyways ill be looking to see what google does Monday morning. Its still google and it could very well open up $20 tomorrow and not look back so do your own DD.